Bitcoin’s Steady Downside Movement Explained: Key Levels, Trend Signals, and What Comes Next

For several weeks, Bitcoin has been grinding lower in a slow, steady downside correction — a move that has frustrated momentum traders but delivered clean, predictable scalps for those watching the right signals. Today, we break down what’s driving the move, the critical support levels, and where Bitcoin may finally find relief.

Whether you’re trading short-term volatility or building long-term positions, these are the levels and indicators that matter now.

Bitcoin’s Downside Bias Is Clear — So Why Am I Buying?

1. Thursday’s Price Pattern: The Most Bearish Day of the Week

Since the 2023 bull market began, Thursdays have closed negative 56% of the time, making them the single most bearish day of the week. The average returns:

+1.89% on winning Thursdays
−1.81% on losing Thursdays

Bitcoin already reached the upside target for a “positive Thursday” at $103,600 — and rejected immediately.

This gave traders another textbook scalpable sell, consistent with the statistical pattern.

Next, if BTC taps the average downside target:

👉 $99,800
Expect at least a first-pass bounce from this area.

But remember:
First pass = high probability bounce
Second pass = much less reliable

With the trend pointing down, this bounce (if hit) shouldn’t be expected to reverse the entire structure — only offer short-term relief.

2. Meta Signals: Short-Term Target 3 Likely Coming Next

The Meta Signals Algo (v1.0) triggered a short setup at $105,000.

Target 1: HIT
Target 2: HIT
Target 3: $98,772 (approx. $99K) — 41% probability

Given the current trend structure, BTC still appears likely to approach Target 3 within the next 1–2 days.

Will BTC bounce at $99K?

Yes — historically, first taps into major Meta Signals targets produce a bounce, even in a downtrend.

But the bounce may be limited unless Bitcoin reclaims a key pivot level (covered later).

3. Both a Short AND a Long Setup Are Active — Here’s Why

Many traders get confused when both bullish and bearish signals exist simultaneously.

The short setup is on the hourly chart
The long setup is from Meta Signals Algo v2.1 on the daily

Both can play out.

The long setup triggered at $103K, invalidated only on a daily close below $98K.

Its first upside target sits at $108K, which historically has a 77% hit rate.

Meaning:

BTC can drop to $98–$99K, bounce, then—
still complete the larger timeframe upside target later.

This dual-timeframe behavior is normal and expected.

4. Momentum: Short-Term Down, Mid-Range Oversold, Reprieve Due Soon

Momentum conditions support more short-term downside:

12-hour: Bearish as long as BTC is below $103,750
Daily: Could flip bullish if BTC closes above $102,200
2-Day, 3-Day, 5-Day: Still downside-biased but entering exhaustion zones

When higher-timeframe momentum compresses this deeply, markets often see a relief bounce — even within a larger correction.

5. The 5-Day Moving Average Setup: Minimum Correction at $99,175

Every time the 5-Day red MA crosses below the 5-Day yellow MA, BTC eventually retests the 5-Day green MA (55 EMA).

And it has happened every single time in CME history.

Current 55 EMA: $99,175

This aligns perfectly with:

Meta Signals Target 3
Thursday’s statistical downside
Structural support in the upper $98–$99K region

👉 Bitcoin has a minimum corrective target near $99K
A wick into $98K is possible before a bounce.

All major cycle lows so far have formed on this 55 EMA test.

If BTC loses it convincingly, the market enters a new, more dangerous phase.

6. The Bullish Pivot: BTC Must Reclaim $108,000

If Bitcoin wants to reverse the short-term downtrend:

Key bullish trigger: $108K

Reclaiming this level opens the door to:

$111K → $112K → $113K

For macro bullish confirmation, BTC must break:

Major reclaim level: $116,500

(The October high)

Until BTC is above this level, the macro trend remains questionable.

7. If BTC Loses $98K, Next Support Is the CME Gap at $91,500–$92,000

Below the current base, the next major target is:

👉 $91.5K–$92K CME gap
+
👉 377 EMA (confluence)

A first tap here would likely produce a solid bounce, but losing this region would:

Break long-term market structure
Signal a deeper correction
Challenge the broader bull-market thesis

This level is incredibly important for the cycle.

8. Long-Term Investors Are Buying This Region

While traders focus on every tick, long-term investors are quietly accumulating.

The creator’s Long-Term Investor (LTI) Tool has flashed new buy signals — designed for:

5–10+ year holds
Value-based accumulation
Buying when emotion is high and price is uncertain

These signals do not mean price won’t go lower.
They simply mean this area has historically produced strong long-term ROI.

The LTI tool will be publicly released during Black Friday week.

9. Price Action Pivots: Daily Lower High Resistance at $108K

The Price Action Pivots indicator is marking:

Key lower high at $108K
Expect “first pass” rejections on tests into this area

This aligns perfectly with the bullish trigger level mentioned earlier.

Conclusion: Short-Term Downtrend, Relief Bounce Likely, Cycle Still Alive

Bitcoin remains in a controlled, steady downside movement, but key signals show:

A bounce from $98–$99K is highly likely
This bounce will determine whether the bull market can resume
A reclaim of $108K is the first bullish confirmation
Losing $98K, then $92K, puts the broader cycle at risk

Short-term:

Downside remains the path of least resistance.

Medium-term:

Bounce likely from the upper-$98K to mid-$99K region.

Long-term:

Investor accumulation continues — the cycle isn’t broken unless BTC loses ~$90K.