Is This the End for Bitcoin? Bitcoin’s Band-Aid Moment: Why the Next Drop Could Be Bigger Than You Think

Bitcoin’s Band-Aid Moment: Why the Next Drop Could Be Bigger Than You Think

The Calm Before the Breakdown

Bitcoin traders, brace yourselves — the charts are sending warnings that can’t be ignored. After months of choppy action and fake breakouts, the data suggests that the downside setups are beginning to play out. In simple terms: it looks like the band-aid is about to be ripped off.

Over the last year, Bitcoin has been locked in a battle between bullish hope and technical reality. Thursdays, interestingly enough, have been statistically the most bearish day since the 2023 bull market began — with over 56% of all Thursdays closing negatively. And with today’s momentum, it looks like that pattern might hold true again.

Is This the End for Bitcoin?

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The Technical Picture: Lower Highs and Hidden Bearish Divergence

Technical analysts have spotted several key signals hinting at further correction. Among them:

• Hidden bearish divergence on the daily RSI — a classic sign that momentum is fading.

• A lower high rejection from the October 12 peak.

• Major moving averages crossing bearishly (the 4-EMA dropping below the 21-EMA on CME charts).

Each of these setups has historically led to minimum corrections down to the 55-EMA, currently around $102,700. And if that level doesn’t hold, the next major support sits closer to $99,000 — aligning across multiple timeframes including the 2-day, 5-day, and weekly charts.

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What the Indicators Are Saying

The Caretaker Indicator Suite and Crown Oscillator (both under development) are showing momentum rolling over and volatility increasing — a combination that often precedes larger market moves. The stochastic momentum across multiple timeframes, from 2-day to monthly, continues to turn bearish.

Even more concerning: the monthly and bi-monthly momentum cross to the downside will confirm for the first time since July 2021 — and before that, November 2017 and January 2014, both marking major market tops in Bitcoin history.

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The Four-Year Cycle Theory

If you’re a believer in Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, then early October’s peak may have been right on schedule. Each major cycle has followed a pattern: a euphoric high followed by a sharp multi-month correction. While it’s too early to call a permanent top, history suggests that the next few months could bring sideways and downward action — potentially into the upper-$80,000s to mid-$90,000s before any new trend reversal.

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Scalping, Strategy, and Survival

For short-term traders, there are still opportunities. Scalping plays near key support zones like $108,000 have already produced quick bounces, but second passes are much lower probability. The message? Trade the first touch, not the second.

For longer-term investors, patience is key. Automation tools like Quant Prime and the Quantum Wave Bands (with 7-day free trials available) are becoming invaluable for traders who want to backtest and automate their strategies rather than emotionally chase moves.

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The Bottom Line

Bitcoin’s next move is unlikely to be gentle. With bearish crossovers stacking across multiple timeframes, rising volatility, and major cyclical indicators flashing red, a real correction is likely underway.

Still, every correction brings opportunity. When the dust settles — perhaps near the $90K-$100K region — the market may finally have the foundation needed for its next major run.

Until then, keep your stops tight, your charts clean, and your emotions detached. The band-aid is being ripped off — and as every seasoned trader knows, it’s better to prepare before the pain hits.