Bitcoin Crash to $65K: Bottom Levels, Macro Liquidity, and the 2026 Timeline to Watch

“What a crazy market. What a crazy week.” If you’ve been around Bitcoin long enough, you’ve heard the word crash thrown around every time BTC dips 2–3%. But a fast move down into the mid-$60Ks after a cycle top is what most people would call a real crash — and it’s exactly the kind of environment that separates panic from plan.

This article breaks down:

Where Bitcoin could realistically find a bottom (key levels and “classic” bear-market magnets)
How long this bear phase can last (cycle timing + 2026 macro/political catalysts)
Why Bitcoin has been acting weird vs gold (liquidity plumbing + correlation break)
A simple risk framework for thinking in months, not minutes

This is educational market commentary, not financial advice.

Bitcoin Crash! When Will Bitcoin find its bottom?

Why I’m Calm: Bear Markets Are the Best Allocation Window

Bear markets don’t feel good — they never do. They feel like uncertainty, red candles, and “it’s over” posts everywhere. But historically, the most important accumulation windows are built during periods like this: months of chop, fear, and boredom after the initial liquidation wave.

The reason is simple: the best long-term entries rarely arrive when the crowd feels confident. They tend to show up when nobody wants the asset… right before macro conditions improve and price eventually re-prices upward.

The Macro Setup: Liquidity Is Rising… But Not Cleanly

1) The Fed’s balance sheet is no longer shrinking (and bill purchases are back)

A key macro claim in the transcript is that the Fed started expanding its balance sheet again and announced Reserve Management Purchases (RMPs) of Treasury bills around $40B/month, starting December 12, 2025. That general picture is supported by official and primary sources: the New York Fed’s operating policy statement and reporting around the plan.

Translation: the Fed is no longer actively removing liquidity the way it was during tighter QT conditions — but the pace and persistence after spring 2026 is still an open question.

2) The “liquidity drain” problem: the Treasury General Account (TGA)

Even if the Fed adds liquidity, the market can still feel tight if the Treasury is rebuilding cash in the Treasury General Account (TGA) — the government’s checking account at the Fed. When the TGA rises, it can pull liquidity out of the system. You can track TGA levels directly via FRED’s series for the Treasury General Account.

Translation: You can have “Fed doing supportive things” while overall conditions still feel choppy if the Treasury is net-draining liquidity.

The 2026 Timing Catalysts: Why Chop Could Last Longer Than People Want

The transcript highlights two “uncertainty windows” that markets may need to clear:

A) May 2026: Fed leadership transition risk

President Trump has nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with Powell’s term ending in May 2026 (pending confirmation).

Why markets care: leadership changes can shift expectations around rates, balance-sheet policy, and crisis response timing — even if nothing concrete changes on day one.

B) November 3, 2026: U.S. midterm elections

The U.S. midterm elections are scheduled for Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

The transcript’s point isn’t “politics predicts price.” It’s that midterm years can be messy for narratives, fiscal decisions, and risk sentiment — and Bitcoin has historically bottomed around major macro/credibility “resolution points,” not during peak uncertainty.

The “Tariff Dividend” Narrative and Why Markets Are Watching It

The transcript ties TGA behavior and year-end liquidity to Trump’s public comments about potential $2,000 “tariff checks/dividends.” Recent reporting indicates Trump has discussed the idea but has also been non-committal on timing and specifics, suggesting any decision could come later in the year.

Important takeaway: whether or not checks happen, markets are attempting to price fiscal timing — and fiscal timing can influence liquidity conditions and risk appetite.

Cycle Timing: How Long Do Bear Markets Typically Last?

A common cycle heuristic is that Bitcoin bear markets often take roughly 12–13 months from cycle top to final bottom. That’s not a law of nature — but it’s a useful “range of expectation” when combined with known 2026 catalysts.

If the cycle top was in late 2025, then a “typical” cycle-bottom window pointing into late 2026 isn’t crazy — and it happens to line up with the midterm timing the transcript emphasizes.

What Changed: Why BTC vs Gold Broke (and Why It Matters)

The transcript claims a major inflection around Oct 10, 2025, describing it as a historic liquidation hour that coincided with Bitcoin decoupling from gold.

Even without endorsing any single “hidden reason,” the concept is reasonable: correlations can break abruptly when positioning, leverage, forced selling, or market structure changes — especially in crypto where cascades can overwhelm macro tailwinds temporarily.

Translation: Gold can rally on debasement/liquidity narratives while Bitcoin sells off due to crypto-specific liquidation mechanics. That doesn’t kill the long-term thesis; it changes the near-term path.

Bottom Levels: The 3 Most-Watched Bear Market “Magnets”

The transcript outlines three classic zones traders and investors watch in a BTC bear market:

1) Prior cycle all-time high: ~$65K

This is the “first serious bear-market magnet.” In the last cycle, BTC revisited the prior ATH zone before deeper capitulation later.

Interpretation: touching the prior ATH is often where long-term buyers start to pay attention.

2) The 200-week simple moving average: ~$58K (the “line in the sand”)

Historically, the 200-week SMA has been one of Bitcoin’s most respected long-term mean-reversion levels, acting as a major bear-market reference point across multiple cycles.

Interpretation: if BTC tags the 200-week, it’s typically a “high-quality” long-term area — even if price can still wick below it.

3) Tail-risk capitulation: ~30% below the 200-week (example: ~$40K)

In a true black-swan unwind (think “major entity blows up”), the transcript uses the prior cycle as a template: price can drop ~25–30% below the 200-week SMA briefly.

Interpretation: this is the “in case of extreme panic” level — but historically very few participants actually execute perfectly there, because fear is maximum.

The practical point from the transcript: if you wait for the perfect bottom tick, you often miss the best window entirely.

A Simple 2026 Risk Framework (No Crystal Ball Required)

If you want a clean way to think about this without pretending certainty:

Now → mid-May 2026: highest uncertainty window (Fed transition risk + unresolved narratives)
Mid-May → Nov 3, 2026: still choppy, but more clarity can emerge
Post–midterms: historically a common “resolution” period for narratives + liquidity/fiscal direction

This isn’t a guarantee — it’s a planning framework.

Closing Thought: “Belief” Is a Real Edge (If You Can Handle Volatility)

Institutions can allocate. ETFs can buy. Macro funds can rotate. But one thing they often don’t have is the emotional tolerance to buy when Bitcoin feels broken.

Long-term BTC participants survive because they learn to separate:

Price action (violent, emotional)
from
Process (patient, rules-based, time-aware)

If you’re still here watching BTC analysis during crash candles, you’re already doing the hardest part: staying engaged when it’s uncomfortable.